The economic stagnation that concussion of pneumonic epidemic situation brings about new coronal ebbs even, almost global macroeconomics home people wisdom supply forced corner. |
Differ with the global economic depression that international banking crisis caused 2008, the concussion that this second epidemic situation brings cannot find base line setting almost. Perhaps say, this is main economy system have not enough time to prepare to answer at all beforehand of the case " immediateness breaks down model " exterior concussion. Virus lives to give birth to vivid enroach on with production to the mankind, will deadly menace and panic ferment formation double hazard helix is deduced additional kind incisively and vividly, cause an effect at the same time to side of each country supply and demand side.
Not long ago is self-satisfied still fall to come to lowermost United States to 50 years at unemployment rate government, must face more than 26 million person to apply for the predicament of unemployment benefit however nowadays. Since American economy enters 73 years, area of the most severe decline will be big probability incident. Euro area already received the most serious decline situation since 1999. The Japan with epidemic situation is opposite and a few smaller talk, the government also rises to come to pessimistic degree of economy most. And be pounded earlier by epidemic situation but the our country that takes the lead in controlling information about and appraisal of an epidemic, although drive answer of go back to work actively to produce, but GDP still dropped compared to the same period first quarter 6.8% , the quarter appears to enjoy growth first since making public quarterly GDP 1992 oneself. Call ability as to those beat back weaker in small economy system especially least of all developed country, it is to suffer fully more suffer.
What what I hope is, because global economy is basic,the economic big decline inside limits of this second whole world is not what the face worsens significantly or financial unbalance causes. This also is meant, want epidemic situation to gain overall control only, the refreshment that economy normalizes time too won't long, appear likely even revengeful sex grows. But before vaccine comes out, any is opposite economy anabiosises of foreground hopeful anticipate build on hypothesis sex foundation.
Although global economy is short-term inside see the light that anabiosis very hard, but each country already broke down to prevent native economy and financial system, of hold together the national economy and the people's livelihood need and threw total Communist Labor University without exception 80 thousand much dollar. How is money taken with form of true gold silver as to this, be about to hit greatly interrogation.
For instance, diagnose number already exceeded the United States of 1.6 million to turn over all sorts of tools in finance and monetary policy kit almost. Beautiful couplet store it is not to have upper limit to start a quantity to change loose policy more, have the contemporary money theory that regarded in the past as blame main stream greatly (the situation that MMT) promote is mainstream economics. And the person that has bit of economics common sense a little knows, after gold standard is replaced by credit money system, the United States that is heavily in debt already this second take the money that saves city, it is actuate imprints actually bank note machine sends green bill. And up to now, no matter beautiful couplet store Er of chairman Bao Wei or finance minister Munuqin, dare not make sure American future does not produce inflation. But economist people had done already rigorous and computative, beautiful couplet store since holding water 1913 oneself, the dollar has depreciated 100 multiple. So-called fund is worth after all not costly, ordinary common people has perception most.
The money that since combing epidemic situation to spread in the whole world, hold a memorial ceremony for gives the state such as beautiful Europe and finance answer measure, as follows a few kinds are must: It is to live firmly market sentiment and put in fluidity, 2 it is direct aid and even the enterprise that take-over to go bankrupt because of epidemic situation is pounded and be faced with, 3 it is common people of immediate saving ground floor is waited a moment.
With respect to the first movement character, if beautiful couplet store did not open floodgate urgently closely in March this year large-scale turn on the water, likelihood American stock market is early with respect to cutting sb in two at the waist. And measure of the 2nd kind of deliverance, although deviate from badly " blackboard economics " principle, but regard western country as the government, if be in core business to be faced with bankrupt the moment of truth to look on indifferently, as good as at political idiocy. As to the 3rd kind of act, although be represented to mock by wealthy person of a few United States, but this is standing to talk just about not the waist aches, american common people puts the low deposit preference that be in generally, make they are before the large-scale unemployed wet concussion that faces new coronal epidemic situation to bring have defence tenacity hardly. This moment, the government sends Qian Cai directly is good sense.
But on the other hand, because be done not have beforehand beforehand case, all sorts of answering plan that each country government releases up to now is accomplished impossibly one by one essence of life is accurate. Some is the policy stimulation that contains sharp increase preference even. In credit dilate times of the industrialization after already becoming what economic confidence basically props up greatly, develop the role that management department of economic system money assumes is heavier, mean the accumulation of debt risk more. And the serious lesson that the financial crisis that erupted 2008 brings to common people is: Below the circumstance that hypostatic economic benefits fails to get synchronism rises, if one country drives finance to deepen continuously and even the credit dilate that economy grows to basically rely on day of quantity will prop up, final meeting is caused to economic system hard the destruction of repair.
Unluckily these year come, development of real economy growth, estate and technical progress cannot be opposite the whole world effectively to be accumulated to bubble zephyr danger, many large economy system drop " debt drive " growth trap. And macroeconomics proves already: Economic depression and financial crisis drop apparently with labor productivity substantially, capital return rate drops significantly closely related. If a large number of credit and monetary creation continue to be used at buying to put quantity capital fund, investment of productivity of and rather than and technical research and development, the arrival that issues financial crisis one round by a definite date not far.
New coronal epidemic situation will go eventually as great and communal wholesome incident, but beautiful couplet store open big save city exceeds the money of hair with deliverance check to call in very hard quickly. To system of other and large economy character also is such. Because economic system or say economic ecosystem, like human body, be often cannot be stimulated especially of large-scale stimulation, can produce functional sex certainly otherwise disorder. Far-sighted economy policymaker won't not know Nobel economics gave birth to the historical penetration that increases theory inside Luo Mo of · of award winner Paul 2018. The mainest factor that Luo Mo's research makes clear to drive economy grows is capital of progress of intellectual innovation, science and technology and promotion manpower. And the economic practice of real world already proved: New growth of Luo Mo can explain a lot of economy grows a phenomenon not only theoretically, and the economy that can promote many countries and area grows transition.
Although inside the proposal of a lot of policy with natural disposition academic growth looks in at present it seems that delay not good is urgent, but the fact has proved: Global economy anabiosised to what obtain between 2014 2008 achievement, embedded and tremendous uncertainty is essence anabiosis. Because basically develop economic system not will new the logistic starting point that round of economy rises, the defect that is put in self-criticism to have growth pattern already increases investment of technical research and development and respect of manpower capital promotion, and main support credit puts in achieve exterior prosperity. Economy grows from will for a long time see the remarkable promotion that must rely on progress of the natural disposition inside the technology and manpower capital. And economic gold melts to be arranged with debt is Shuang Renjian, be not the power that economy grows.
Crisis of economy of no less than is what detonate by a chain of incident is same, the economy that each country expects anabiosises also need a chain of major event to activation. The major task that is placed before global policymaker is, if why eliminate new coronal epidemic situation inside prospective half an year this major uncertainty, the battalion business gift that the policy that follows with essence of life puts activation on microcosmic main body and innovation vigor. (Author Zhang Yugui is prexy of commerce of banking of international of university of Shanghai foreign language)